China will view additional U.S. arms gross sales, official journey to Taiwan or naval exercise close to the self-governing island as provocations that may additional destabilize relations and forestall progress on different points, Beijing’s ambassador to the U.S. warned Tuesday.

Why it issues: Ambassador Qin Gang stated if Washington doesn’t “present restraint” within the wake of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s go to to Taiwan, there will probably be “one other spherical of tensions” — and no dialogue on points like local weather change and nuclear safety.

State of play: China carried out weeklong army drills after Pelosi’s journey earlier this month. They seemed to be a costume rehearsal for subduing Taiwan and concerned newly aggressive steps, like disregarding the median line between Taiwan and the mainland.

• After Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) led one other delegation to Taipei on Sunday, China launched a contemporary set of smaller-scale workouts.
• The White Home contends that China is utilizing Pelosi’s go to as a pretext to alter the established order and “intimidate and coerce Taiwan.”
• Qin cited his personal frantic efforts to forestall the go to — utilizing “each channel potential,” he stated — as proof that China had no need for such a pretext.

Nonetheless, each side acknowledge that tensions over Taiwan are escalating dangerously and poisoning the broader relationship.

• Qin stated the One China Precept — which asserts that there’s just one Chinese language state and that Taiwan is an inalienable a part of China — should be the idea of all U.S.-China relations.
• With out that “basis” in place, he stated, talks like these President Biden has proposed on nuclear safety can’t proceed.
• Longstanding U.S. coverage is to acknowledge China’s claims over Taiwan, however neither settle for them nor again Taiwan’s independence.

Setting the scene: Chatting with small group of reporters in Washington, Qin spoke on-the-record for 80 minutes, fielding questions on a variety of delicate points — one thing of a rarity for senior Chinese language officers.

• He hardly ever strayed removed from a set of speaking factors — which, within the case of Taiwan, had been strikingly hawkish — however did concede that Beijing has work to do to enhance its picture in each Taiwan and within the U.S., the place he stated “worry of China” was prevalent.

What’s subsequent: The U.S. plans to ship naval vessels by means of the Taiwan Strait within the coming weeks and to approve extra arms gross sales to Taiwan.

• These steps could be according to the practices of previous administrations, however Qin warned that China would see them as an escalation of tensions and be “compelled to react.”

What to observe: Qin reiterated that Taiwan should be reunified with mainland China, however stated he discovered latest reporting that the timeline for a possible invasion is rising shorter to be “baseless.”

• Unification will happen peacefully if potential and by drive if mandatory, Qin stated, although he stated Beijing solely held out the latter possibility to discourage “separatism” in Taiwan or “international intervention.”
• Taiwan may even stay a democracy underneath the “One Nation, Two Methods” precept, Qin stated. However he additionally claimed One Nation, Two Methods was alive and properly in Hong Kong, regardless of Beijing’s reassertion of direct management there. He additionally made it clear whose system would take priority after reunification: “If there’s no One Nation, there could be no Two Methods.”
• Requested a couple of remark by China’s ambassador to France that China will pursue “reeducation” in Taiwan after reunification, Qin stated that Beijing needed to “reinforce our [shared] nationwide identification.”

Value noting: Qin rejected the concept Biden — who stated publicly that the U.S. army felt Pelosi’s go to was “not a good suggestion” — hadn’t sanctioned Pelosi’s go to.

• He argued that the administration had “accommodated” the journey, and that Congress “is just not an impartial, uncontrollable department, in line with worldwide legislation” (although it’s, after all, underneath the U.S. Structure).