IMF Govt Board Concludes the Second Opinions of the Prolonged Credit score Facility and Prolonged Fund Facility Preparations for Cameroon
July 25, 2022
- Completion of the Second Opinions offers Cameroon with entry to the equal of US$ 72.9 million from the IMF.
- The nascent financial system restoration from mid-2021 is now topic to better uncertainties due to the spillovers from the warfare in Ukraine, excessive inflationary pressures- particularly meals and gas prices-, and a tightening of world monetary circumstances. Low vaccination charges additionally go away the nation weak to additional COVID-19 waves. Nonetheless, the medium-term financial prospects stay optimistic.
- The general program efficiency is blended, with delayed structural reforms in some key areas.
Washington, DC:
As we speak, the Govt Board of the Worldwide Financial Fund (IMF)
concluded the Second Opinions of the
Prolonged Credit score Facility
(ECF) Association and the Prolonged Association underneath the
Prolonged Fund Facility
(EFF) for Cameroon. The completion of the second evaluations permits the
disbursement of SDR 18.Four million (about US$ 24.Three million) underneath the ECF
Association, and purchases of SDR 36.Eight million (about US$ 48.6 million)
underneath the EFF Association, bringing whole entry underneath the preparations to
SDR 262.2 million (about US$ 346.1 million). The Govt Board additionally
accepted the authorities’ request for a waiver of applicability for the
end-June 2022 efficiency standards.
Cameroon’s three-year ECF-EFF preparations have been
accepted on July 29, 2021
and are constructed round 5 pillars: (i) mitigating the well being, financial, and
social penalties of the pandemic whereas guaranteeing fiscal and exterior
sustainability; (ii) reinforcing good governance and strengthening the
transparency and the anti-corruption framework; (iii) accelerating
structural fiscal reforms to modernize the tax and customs administrations,
mobilize income, enhance public monetary administration, enhance public
funding effectivity, and cut back fiscal dangers from state-owned
enterprises; (iv) strengthening debt administration and guaranteeing debt ranges
stay sustainable; and (v) implementing structural reforms to speed up
financial diversification, enhance monetary sector resilience and inclusion,
and promote gender equality and a greener financial system.
Cameroon had began to get well from the COVID-19 shock in 2021, previous to
the warfare in Ukraine. After a document low of -2.2 % yr on yr (yoy)
in Q2-2020, actual GDP development price step by step recovered to achieve 3.6 %
in 2021, supported by a powerful restoration within the main and tertiary
sectors. The nascent financial restoration in 2021 is now topic to better
uncertainties with spillovers from the warfare in Ukraine, excessive inflationary
pressures, particularly on meals and gas costs, and a tightening of world
monetary circumstances.
The financial outlook for 2022 stays optimistic, however with nice
uncertainties. Actual GDP development is projected at 3.Eight % in 2022, down
from 4.5 % on the time of this system’s First Opinions. Inflation is
projected to rise to 4.6 % in 2022, however to stay beneath Three % in
the medium time period.
As a crude oil exporter, Cameroon has skilled some optimistic results on
its exterior and monetary positions. Nonetheless, intensified larger world
costs and provide disruptions have considerably elevated the price of gas
subsidies and are putting extra strain on Cameroon’s home
costs, particularly for meals and fertilizers.
Dangers regarding the warfare in Ukraine have compounded pandemic dangers.
Draw back dangers embody rising and unstable meals, fertilizers, and vitality
costs, and provide disruptions; new outbreaks of deadly and extremely
contagious COVID-19 variants; a pointy enhance in world danger premia
following the continued financial coverage tightening in superior economies; and
insufficient progress on gas value subsidies.
On the upside, Cameroon might profit from new oil and fuel alternatives and
the completion of main hydroelectric vegetation. Dangers are mitigated by the
authorities’ sturdy implementation document of macro-economic packages, shut
engagement with donors, a complete capability growth program, and
contingency planning, together with its COVID-19 response plan.
On the conclusion of the Govt Board’s dialogue, Mr. Kenji Okamura,
Deputy Managing Director and Performing Chair, made the next assertion:
“Cameroon’s financial system proved resilient to the COVID-19 shock, however the
restoration is now topic to better uncertainties, with elevated
inflationary pressures, low vaccination charges, and tightening world
monetary circumstances. The ECF and EFF preparations have supported the
authorities’ efforts to realize a fast post-pandemic restoration, strengthen
medium-term exterior and monetary sustainability, and implement their
structural reform agenda towards sustained, extra inclusive, and diversified
development.
“Cameroon’s efficiency underneath this system stays on monitor and structural
reforms are advancing, albeit with delays in some key areas. The
authorities are dedicated to reaching this system’s targets and
accelerating the tempo of reform implementation to help non-public
sector-led financial diversification.
“The authorities’ technique to take care of their fiscal consolidation path, and
to scale back gas subsidies step by step, beginning in 2023, whereas defending the
weak, will assist mitigate the influence of latest shocks. Continued
non-oil income mobilization and expenditure rationalization will assist
rebuild fiscal area for strengthening social security nets, and boosting the
restoration, whereas preserving debt sustainability. Whereas debt sustainability
indicators have improved, continued efforts are warranted to handle debt
cautiously and restrict reliance on non-concessional borrowing.
“Efficient and resolute implementation of the authorities’ structural
reforms, significantly to additional strengthen transparency, good governance,
and the anti-corruption framework, are important to advertise development and assist
catalyze extra donor financing. To assist guarantee monetary sector
resilience, the authorities ought to intently monitor the rising
non-performing loans and proceed with financial institution restructuring inside the
timetable set by COBAC. Additional efforts are additionally wanted to sort out gender
inequality and local weather change associated challenges.”
Desk 1. Cameroon: Chosen Financial and Monetary Indicators, 2021-27
(CFAF billion, except in any other case indicated)
|
2021 |
2021 |
2022 |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
2026 |
2027 |
|
|
1st Rev. |
Est. |
1st Rev. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
Proj. |
|
|
Nationwide account and costs |
|||||||||
|
GDP at fixed costs |
3.5 |
3.6 |
4.5 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
|
Oil GDP at fixed costs |
0.1 |
-3.2 |
0.1 |
4.2 |
-3.0 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
|
Non-Oil GDP at fixed costs |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
GDP deflator |
2.6 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
2.4 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
|
Nominal GDP (at market costs, CFAF billions) |
24,951 |
25,158 |
26,828 |
27,389 |
29,325 |
31,506 |
33,766 |
36,152 |
38,682 |
|
Oil |
929 |
801 |
1,009 |
1,187 |
1,090 |
992 |
927 |
883 |
859 |
|
Non-Oil |
24,021 |
24,357 |
25,819 |
26,201 |
28,235 |
30,513 |
32,839 |
35,269 |
37,823 |
|
Client costs (common) |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
4.6 |
2.8 |
2.6 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
Client costs (eop) |
2.1 |
3.5 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
|
(P.c of GDP, except in any other case Indicated) |
|||||||||
|
Cash and credit score |
|||||||||
|
Broad cash (M2) |
13.8 |
17.2 |
10.7 |
15.6 |
10.1 |
8.1 |
6.7 |
6.1 |
7.0 |
|
Internet overseas belongings 1/ |
1.9 |
4.3 |
6.5 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
1.7 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
3.6 |
|
Internet home belongings 1/ |
11.9 |
12.9 |
4.2 |
10.5 |
6.1 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
|
Home credit score to the non-public sector |
5.4 |
9.7 |
5.6 |
9.1 |
12.4 |
10.9 |
7.4 |
7.5 |
3.1 |
|
Financial savings and investments |
|||||||||
|
Gross nationwide financial savings |
26.9 |
14.0 |
29.8 |
16.3 |
17.3 |
18.8 |
20.4 |
21.8 |
23.2 |
|
Gross home funding |
30.3 |
17.9 |
31.8 |
18.4 |
20.0 |
22.0 |
23.6 |
25.0 |
26.0 |
|
Public funding |
5.4 |
4.6 |
5.5 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
6.7 |
6.8 |
|
Non-public funding |
24.9 |
13.4 |
26.2 |
13.2 |
14.6 |
16.2 |
17.6 |
18.3 |
19.2 |
|
Central authorities operations |
|||||||||
|
Complete income (together with grants) |
13.9 |
14.1 |
14.9 |
15.4 |
15.9 |
15.7 |
15.5 |
15.5 |
15.4 |
|
Oil income |
1.9 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
1.6 |
|
Non-oil income |
11.7 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.0 |
12.8 |
13.1 |
13.4 |
13.6 |
13.7 |
|
Non-oil income (% of non-oil GDP) |
12.1 |
12.4 |
12.5 |
12.5 |
13.3 |
13.6 |
13.8 |
13.9 |
14.0 |
|
Complete expenditure |
17.0 |
16.5 |
16.7 |
17.4 |
16.1 |
16.0 |
15.9 |
16.7 |
16.7 |
|
Total fiscal stability (fee order foundation) |
|||||||||
|
Excluding grants |
-3.4 |
-2.6 |
-2.4 |
-2.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
-1.4 |
-1.4 |
|
Together with grants |
-3.1 |
-2.4 |
-1.8 |
-1.9 |
-0.2 |
-0.3 |
-0.4 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
|
Total fiscal stability (money foundation) |
|||||||||
|
Excluding grants |
-3.8 |
-3.0 |
-2.7 |
-3.0 |
-1.0 |
-0.9 |
-0.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.4 |
|
Together with grants |
-3.5 |
-2.8 |
-2.2 |
-2.5 |
-0.7 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
-1.3 |
-1.3 |
|
Non-oil main stability (fee foundation, % of |
-4.0 |
-3.4 |
-3.4 |
-4.2 |
-2.3 |
-1.9 |
-1.7 |
-2.3 |
-2.2 |
|
Exterior sector |
|||||||||
|
Commerce stability |
-1.1 |
-1.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.7 |
-1.3 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
-1.9 |
|
Oil exports |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
7.5 |
6.0 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
|
Non-oil exports |
8.0 |
8.0 |
8.6 |
9.4 |
8.7 |
8.1 |
7.9 |
7.7 |
7.7 |
|
Imports |
13.8 |
14.5 |
14.6 |
17.6 |
16.0 |
14.9 |
14.1 |
13.5 |
12.9 |
|
Present account stability |
|||||||||
|
Excluding official grants |
-3.7 |
-4.4 |
-2.4 |
-2.6 |
-3.0 |
-3.5 |
-3.6 |
-3.5 |
-3.1 |
|
Together with official grants |
-3.4 |
-4.0 |
-2.0 |
-2.1 |
-2.6 |
-3.2 |
-3.3 |
-3.2 |
-2.9 |
|
Phrases of commerce |
5.2 |
7.0 |
3.4 |
7.1 |
-7.1 |
-6.9 |
-4.6 |
-3.2 |
-2.5 |
|
Public debt |
|||||||||
|
Inventory of public debt |
47.2 |
45.5 |
45.0 |
44.0 |
40.8 |
37.9 |
35.3 |
33.9 |
32.6 |
|
Of which: |
33.9 |
31.6 |
32.8 |
31.2 |
30.3 |
29.2 |
28.2 |
27.6 |
26.9 |
Sources: Cameroonian authorities; and IMF employees estimates and projections
utilizing up to date nominal GDP.
1/ P.c of broad cash in the beginning of the interval.
IMF Communications Division
MEDIA RELATIONS
PRESS OFFICER: Nicolas Mombrial
Cellphone: +1 202 623-7100E-mail: MEDIA@IMF.org
